Unemployment, Uninsured & Medicaid Rolls Up

The New York Times reports that
“The nation lost 524,000 jobs in December…. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, jumped to a 16-year-high of 7.2 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday.”

This is up from 6.7% in November, 2008; up from 4.7% in November 2007.

Last week, in a post about prognostications for health care in 2009 (“Ringing in a New Year in Health Care, For Whom the Bell Tolls?”), we quoted the following from Jane Sarosahn Kahn in The Health Care Blog:

Keep in mind the Kaiser Family Foundation's metric on unemployment: an increase of 1% unemployment leads to 1.1 million uninsured, and 1 million more people added to Medicaid. This was the math that worked in 2007-8. The metric will probably change in 2009 as Governors struggle to balance budgets while providing medical services, education, and safe streets to citizens. The National Governors Association, and the individual state heads, have all warned that Governors will inevitably cut services in 2009 and into 2010 if tax receipts continue to decline.

In response, we stated:

According the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, in November of 2007 the unemployment rate was 4.7%. For November of 2008 it was 6.7%. Regardless of the metric, the consequent health insurance math is less than reassuring.

Regardless of its lack of reassurance, perhaps the math should be done.

Using the Kaiser metric, understated as it may be for 2008-9, the half per cent increase in unemployment in December (7.2% from 6.7% in November) is equal to:

• 550,000 more people without health insurance
• 500,000 more people on Medicaid

This is in addition to a two per cent raise in unemployment from November 2007 (4.7%) to November 2008 (6.7%).
That 2% equals:

• 2,200,000 more people without health insurance
• 2,000,000 more people on Medicaid

Total from November 2007 (4.7% unemployment) to December 2008 (7.2% unemployment) equals:

• 2,750,000 more people without health insurance
• 2,500,000 more people on Medicaid